The Serious Logical Structure of the Climate Moment
Author: Douglass Carmichael Issue: 2023-08-02
The Serious Logical Structure of the Climate Moment
by Douglass Carmichael
These are an integrated series of postings from douglasscarmichael.substack.com. The number is the number of postings in the original blog and the date is the date published. I have included only recent ones, ones with more about climate strategy.
The Serious Logical Structure of the Climate Moment
# 3006 July 13 23
This week, the world is filled with proposals that seem nonsensical, suggesting that with action, the climate crisis will be “solved.”
The logic of possible futures is tightening. I highly recommend that you try to place your own viewpoints into a compact logical structure and observe the outcomes.
We can*’t halt temperature rises because we can’*t stop CO2 production. Every new project or green initiative adds to the industrial system and consumes energy (in the US, 17% of electrical energy goes towards computing).
Even if we ceased all CO2 production, the existing amount in the atmosphere would continue to heat the air. It isn*’*t decreasing except for a small fraction each year, due to its 120-year half-life.
The cost of green energy is often considered “at the pump”, but the expenses of building and installing are usually overlooked. We consider the cost of running a Tesla but not the cost of manufacturing it (including the cost of building the factory), nor the cost of the energy lines to deliver power from the utility company. Worse still, the electricity produced requires energy to create, which is usually sourced from coal.
Currently, wind and solar production worldwide account for three percent of total energy. This is a shaky foundation on which to build successful scenarios of technological solutions at or near 100%.
Even if we could eliminate all new emissions, enough CO2 is already in the air to keep temperatures rising, absent any large-scale carbon sequestration technologies, which do not yet exist.
We often fail to consider the loss of species necessary for food production, or the impact on the oceans. We overlook the inability of governance to intervene effectively.
There is a growing sense that capitalism fosters socially destructive inequality, and that a society dividing people between owners and non-owners, labor and capital, is part of the problem. However, we don*’t have an alternative yet. Capitalism aims to extract wealth from land and people by buying cheap–trees, for instance–and selling high–*lumber, without full replenishment.
The existing fossil fuel energy system will collapse either due to a lack of materials for projects or escalating costs as extraction intensifies and inflation rises.
Attempting to procure these materials in sufficient quantities leads to extensive land abuse and sets up competition for the same resources (20 pounds of lithium requires processing 20 tons of earth).
There isn*’*t enough of certain required metals in the ground to meet the needs of one generation of EVs, let alone cater to the replacement cycle that will soon begin for the oldest EVs.
Recycling isn*’t a frictionless system–it requires energy. Pushing material through the system isn’*t easy, and there are many competing uses of electrification, all seeking the same materials.
Competition for scarce resources among nations and corporations will occur within the context of increasingly severe climate events.
The conflict in Ukraine is not an internal cultural war, but one between cultures. Both Russia and the US/EU seek cultural dominance. The US advocates for a market-based world, while Russia leans towards a czarist world. There appears to be no end in sight for this war, which will continue to escalate, increasing the use of resources, energy, and the production of CO2.
Our society seems to be growing ever more complex, intertwined, and resistant to change. Under the strain of climate symptoms, people try to cling to what they have and resist change.
Climate breakdown is inevitable, but it isn*’*t a single event. It is a process with many emergent possibilities, not just market and commercial opportunities, but deep cultural shifts in values and how we allocate our time.
The current older population, those aged 50 and above, perhaps even 40 and above, is generally too entrenched in its ways to adapt to these changes. For instance, they may view emergent opportunities as private property and profit chances, missing out on the challenging tasks of adapting to new social and climate changes. Most people prefer to cling to what they have rather than embrace change.
Emergent changes already in process are likely to be characterized by chaos, confusion, and potentially violence, ranging from mafia activities to conventional war.
Potential game changers include new uses of the Internet, new energy technologies, and new spiritual movements.
Global problems likely need global solutions and a central authority capable of imposing regulations. The American New Deal is an example of strong ideas from Roosevelt, but with rather weak implementation by Congress and the press.
This is our world, and we are its inhabitants. Our responsibility is to read widely, engage in broad conversations, and organize.
“We are at the very beginning of time for the human race. It is not unreasonable that we grapple with problems. But there are tens of thousands of years in the future. Our responsibility is to do what we can, learn what we can, improve the solutions, and pass them on.” — Richard Feynman
References:
Simon Michaux*’*s discussions on minerals (YouTube search)
Mark Mills, The energy transition delusion: inescapable mineral realities (YouTube)
Nate Hagens, The Great Simplification
Daniel Schmachtenberger, Civilization Emerging
Martin Wolf’s ‘The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism’ (Penguin Random House)
Interview with Martin Wolf and Rob Johnson (Institute for New Economic Thinking)
Digital Society and Social Transformation
# 3007
The increasing discourse surrounding social and economic transformation invariably poses the question–transformation towards what? Perhaps a digital world might be more conducive to social experimentation than the object-focused, materialistic world we are transitioning away from.
Influential narratives, often referred to as scenarios, provide clues for how to proceed with crucial issues concerning organizations or societies, and as issues emerge, they also provide strategies.
However, constructing dynamic narratives about our past and probable future often faces obstacles. The difficulty lies mainly in the fact that professionals, especially in the tech industry, are limited by the notion that history simply involves the transition from agriculture and rural life to factories and cities.
This perception of the movement from rural to industrial society offers a limited view of humanity’s history on Earth. People tend to avoid reading about climate, war, inequality, soil quality, and loss of species, not to mention the lack of exposure to news about their own and comparable life circumstances, such as polluted communities or streets that resemble prisons.
Understanding the causes of these negative outcomes is impossible if their effects aren’t clearly experienced.
Certainly, there are more complex narratives, albeit understood by only a few. These narratives detail our transition from hunter-gatherers, to herding, to settlement formation, craftsmanship, factories, cities, banks, and finally, to a larger tech focus.
However, these narratives often omit the story of capitalism, inequality, religions, elites, and ideas outside one’s own specialized silo.
Graeber and Wengrow’s ‘The Dawn of Everything’ effectively unravels these largely ignored aspects of history, thereby considering realistic alternatives.
An intriguing idea emerged from a small working group of economists discussing narratives: What if the three phases*–agricultural, industrial, and digital–*provide a good map of our most relevant history?
This perspective could shift the global conversations about the goals and processes of transitioning out of materialistic and exploitative capitalism towards more humane values. While this has traditionally been a fairly abstract concept and seemingly unreachable, the digital revolution is already here, making a profound impact. It is much easier to transition to something that is already present, albeit weakly.
In digital culture, the flow of electrons replaces the static placement of things. Aliveness replaces deadness. Metaphorically, electrons are more democratic than objects*–*they are equal agents. This perspective supports the intuitive belief that life is alive, dematerializing matter, and replacing a world of objects with flows, fields, and networks.
So, how do we transition from a universe perceived as matter and objects to a universe experienced as flows, fields, and networks?
We pursue these ideas with the aim of rethinking the kind of society that might emerge based on the long-held goal of creating a more human society. The digital universe is already here, particularly resonating with young minds. These days, the mind is more intuitively perceived as a process than a thing. It’s critical that we leverage this shift and rethink economic and social transformation with compelling ideas that are active in the world, more alive with flows than dead with objects.
The progression from agriculture to industrialization to digital forms an intuitive path that presents numerous opportunities, and with hard work and creativity, the potential to create a better world.
The Internet Is Becoming More Significant Than the Nation-State for Governance, Enabling Transition
# 3008
I have been advancing the idea that we are transitioning from an industrial to a digital culture. This shift is profound, impactful, and cultural. It further allows a transition at the level of governance, institutions, and values. Many young people prioritize internet connectivity over the quality of their living spaces.
The rising frequency and awe-inducing climate news lead to a shift in society’s reliance on the internet. People turn more frequently and with greater focus to the internet for the most relevant, timely understanding of what is happening both locally and globally. Meanwhile, the world’s nation-state organization receives less attention. The outcome is that the internet is supplanting the nation-state with its bureaucratic and parliamentary systems as the source of policy and implementation.
At its best, this could transition to Gardenworlds where food and people are nurtured together in appealing places. At its worst, it could lead to violent struggles over resource allocation.
Events will present us with opportunities we lack the leverage to manufacture.
What to do with the remaining time?
# 3009 JUL 28, 2023
If we are convinced that nothing can halt rising temperatures and catastrophic warming, what should we do? It’s clear that if the temperature rises, all systems will be affected. Each of us has some connection with some of these systems. Consider the effort to defeat Donald Trump. This activity should continue because if he wins, even temporarily, the world we inhabit will be significantly worse. Just as a pianist needs all their fingers, society requires the continuity of most existing efforts to function.
This suggests that we need to continue what we are already doing but do it better, make it more appealing, use less energy if possible, but keep the ship afloat as long as we can. If you feel pressure from the community to cease what you’re doing, it’s best to pay attention. This especially applies to oil company executives. Be mindful of those affected by your actions. Comply with the efforts by the emerging “system” to manage your activities. This is an area where society is exhibiting creativity. There will be many mistakes. Try to be supportive.
It Takes More to Do the Same
# 3010 JUL 28, 2023
From the Guardian
“Extreme temperatures in parts of the US and around the world are forcing airlines to reduce fuel loads, shed passengers or baggage, or wait for daytime temperatures to drop in the evenings, to fly some aircraft.”
The implication is that merely keeping up with what we have been doing requires more effort, energy, and time. This will lead to frustration and exhaustion. We will need increased tolerance as people struggle to cope.
What Story to Tell About Climate?
# 3011 JUL 28, 2023
An important issue is whether we should tell the story of our climate future as we see it, or exaggerate it for self-aggrandizement or to scare others into action. Or should we focus on positive lines of action to encourage participation? Those more negatively inclined cite the observation that many people latch onto positive paths just to say, “See, it's all going to be alright,” and then take no action. We need the philosophers, poets, novelists, and historians to guide us. But where are they? As it stands, both the optimists and the pessimists are essentially being accused of acting in bad faith, which is demoralizing on both sides. It may be that both negative and positive views are de-motivating.
Psychology can offer insights about what motivates people to work harder, but conversations about climate are difficult because we genuinely don’t know what is possible. Strong skepticism from many (I doubt the 100% certainty mentioned above) has fostered the belief that we cannot prevail. Part of their argument is, “But how many resources would it take, who mines the iron and high-grade silicon now needed and what about transportation costs?” We’re short on good answers, and so it goes, with example after example of plans that are not vetted for cost, scale, or CO2 production in manufacturing.
Talk About Climate? Why?
# 3012 JUL 29, 2023
What is the argument for keeping silent about the climate? Conversely, what is the argument for discussing it?
In this series of posts, which I began at the end of May, I aim to be as strategic as possible. However, that term is already vague. What is deemed “strategic” in a solar panel corporation and in the government accountability office can be vastly different. Where we situate ourselves heavily influences what “strategic” will mean. I am writing to support as yet unvoiced thoughts of your own. This is all delightfully complex. Meanwhile, actual suffering in the world is escalating rapidly.
The pressure is on us to be clear.
Related:
- Douglass Carmichael (author)
- 2023 (year)
- Topics: Climate and Environment, Social Change, Regenerative Systems and Agriculture