Civilization Evolving
Author: Peter Kaminski Issue: 2025-08-06
Civilization Evolving
by **Peter Kaminski **with Claude Sonnet 4
As part of a recent discussion on the OGM mailing list about decline and likely calamitous civilization shocks, some messages about positive transformation also emerged. As an exercise, I wanted to share just those, absent the decline and calamity. Not that we can ignore the real warnings and disasters, but today I wanted to focus on the positive.
Here are three views of the future (and one of the present from 50 years ago) shared by OGM members. Perhaps we’re witnessing an evolution of civilization towards a more collaborative, conscious, and equitable form of human organization that transcends the imperial model entirely.
John’s Questions: American Democratic Values
John posed eight questions to ChatGPT about rebuilding American democracy through authentic conversation:
- To what degree does the current prevailing culture of the United States of America align with the current values of American citizens?
- To what degree do American citizens need a conversation about what we value... and what is the most effective way for 250 million people to have such a conversation in an effective manner?
- To what degree are American citizens already engaged in a conversation about what we value, how effectively are we currently conversing, and what is the most compelling action(s) each of us could take to improve the effectiveness of this conversation?
- I have personally found it challenging to answer the question: What matters most to me? Because I find that so many things matter to me. The exercise of trying to identify and prioritize them becomes overwhelming. How might we address this challenge most effectively?
- Please suggest a Shared Framework for Values.
- Are you able to identify any social groups in Bend, Oregon who are already convening to discuss these questions?
- Who or what is the Laboratory for the American Conversation?
- Who is the Laboratory for the American Conversation for? Can regular citizens of Bend, Oregon engage with it?
John’s approach sees the challenge not as inevitable decline, but as a disconnect between governance and citizen values that can be repaired through structured democratic dialogue starting at the local level.
Rob Reframes
Rob’s analysis challenges the decline premise entirely, identifying overlooked patterns pointing toward renewal:
Missing Renewal Patterns: The decline analysis ignores how America historically reinvents itself through crisis, plus overlooks non-partisan revival narratives (innovation renaissance, psychedelic/spiritual awakening, federalism evolution)
Wrong Problem Frame: Instead of managing “American decline,” maybe we’re witnessing species-level transformation where current geopolitical competition becomes as obsolete as feudalism
Global Demographic Convergence: All major “competitors” (China, India, Europe) face identical aging/population peak challenges by 2030-2035, suggesting collaboration rather than zero-sum competition
Overlooked Growth Drivers: Energy independence, AI/quantum/biotech leadership, Gen Z entrepreneurship, and strengthened alliances (NATO, AUKUS, Quad) point toward adaptation, not decay
Consciousness Revolution: Mainstream psychedelic therapy, indigenous wisdom integration, and spiritual practices could create entirely new governance models transcending traditional political divisions
Cooperation Potential: Climate collaboration, technology standards setting, and economic interdependence make “collapse” scenarios self-defeating for all parties—suggesting convergence toward collaborative problem-solving
Rob’s bottom line: Thinking about decline may be solving for imperial transition when the real challenge is managing unprecedented human flourishing and global cooperation.
David: Collapse or Liberation?
David shared an Aeon essay titled “The Great Myth of Empire Collapse” that fundamentally reframes what “collapse” means for ordinary people. The article’s central thesis: life after an empire’s collapse often improved for non-elites. We only think in catastrophic terms because our history is written by the elite.
Key insights from the research:
- Archaeological evidence shows that after the fall of Rome, people across Europe grew taller, had better dental health, and showed fewer signs of disease and malnutrition
- When empires fell, ordinary people often had more food (no tax collectors taking grain), more diverse diets (no pressure to grow tax crops), and less exposure to urban diseases
- The violence of “collapse” typically came from small groups of armed men trying to build new empires, not from general chaos among ordinary citizens
- Modern example: Almost every quality-of-life indicator in Somalia improved after the central government collapsed in 1991
The article argues that our entire framework for understanding imperial “golden ages” followed by “dark ages” reflects elite propaganda. For the 99%, imperial collapse often meant liberation from predatory systems.
Ken: We Knew in 1972
Ken examined how the 1972 “Limits to Growth” predictions have held up after 50 years. The World3 model tracked population growth, industrial output, food production, resource depletion, and pollution accumulation.
The sobering reality: We’ve followed the “Business-as-Usual” trajectory closely, with multiple trends now converging toward systemic stress points including ecological overshoot, climate disruption, economic inequality, supply chain disruptions, and social unrest.
However, Ken’s analysis points toward adaptive strategies that could create positive transformation:
Ecological Stewardship: Protect and restore natural systems, transition to regenerative agriculture
Economic Re-Design: Shift from GDP growth to well-being metrics, promote circular economy
Energy Transformation: Rapidly scale renewables while decreasing total energy demand
Local Resilience: Strengthen local food systems, water security, and energy independence
Behavioral and Cultural Shifts: Normalize sufficiency over accumulation
Policy Innovation: Internalize externalities, support equitable wealth distribution
Improved Modeling: Use modern systems models incorporating Indigenous knowledge
Civilization Evolution
What if we’re witnessing the emergence of a fundamentally different kind of civilization?
From Imperial Extraction to Distributed Flourishing - David’s historical evidence shows that imperial collapse often benefits ordinary people, while Rob’s analysis suggests we’re moving toward collaborative rather than competitive models.
From Elite-Managed Democracy to Authentic Participation - John’s values-based approach creates space for genuine democratic dialogue, while Ken’s systems thinking provides tools for regenerative alternatives.
From Resource Competition to Abundance Through Cooperation - Rob’s consciousness revolution enables new forms of governance, while Ken’s ecological integration ensures we operate within planetary boundaries.
From Crisis Management to Conscious Evolution - All four perspectives point toward proactive transformation rather than reactive decline management.
All four perspectives converge on moving from competitive to collaborative models - whether in governance, economics, or international relations. Rather than mourning empire, we might be pioneering a new model of civilization that integrates democratic values, technological wisdom, ecological intelligence, and equitable prosperity. The question becomes not “How do we save American empire?” but “How do we midwife the birth of regenerative civilization?”
Rather than decline, perhaps we’re seeing humanity’s graduation from imperial adolescence to collaborative maturity.
Related:
- Peter Kaminski (author)
- 2025 (year)
- Topics: Economics and Finance, Philosophy and Spirituality, Regenerative Systems and Agriculture, Wisdom Traditions and Ancient Knowledge, Narrative and Storytelling, Hosting and Facilitation