Theory of Change and OGM
Author: Unknown Issue: 2025-08-20
Theory of Change and OGM
by John Warinner
A recent strategic planning orientation session rekindled my fascination with “Theory of Change” (ToC) analyses and diagrams.
A Theory of Change is a structured way to describe why and how a desired and intended change is expected to happen in a particular context.
A Theory of Change diagram maps the logical sequence between activities, outputs, outcomes, and long-term impacts, making the assumptions behind each step explicit.
I have found the process of creating Theory of Change diagrams especially helpful in drawing out the details (for myself and small groups), what “specifically” do I/we want to happen? Why? What efforts/actions are most likely to bring about this desired outcome or long-term impact?
Theory of Change provides a helpful framework for clarifying goals and objectives as well as “reverse engineering” the sequential chain of activities required to bring about the desired change.
In other words, Theory of Change is a way to move beyond “despair” or “wishful thinking” and a “passive” awareness of how things are... or anticipation of how they may be becoming... and assume an “active” role in shaping things to be how we desire them to be.
Design is an antidote to Despair. Design uses a different part of my brain. Design opens the doors to Flow States of Creativity.
Theory of Change is a vehicle to this other state of being.
If any individuals or subgroups within OGM want to go beyond observing “what is going on” and “what the others are doing” and supposing “what is going to unfold,” I think you may find using Theory of Change to be a refreshing (if not invigorating) alternative.
If you’re interested to learn more, send me an email at johnwarinner@gmail.com
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